Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Tempo Tuesday: Ray Floriani's Tempo-Free Atlantic 10 Wrapup

Barclays Center on Semifinal Saturday at the Atlantic 10 Tournament. (Photo courtesy of Ray Floriani)

The pre­season pick of many Atlantic 10 prognosticators cut down the nets that championship Sunday afternoon at Barclays Center. VCU earned the A-10 championship, but it was a decidedly different script. The Rams entered Brooklyn a contender, but not necessarily the favorite. A few injuries were negotiated during the season, as well as a surprise from newcomer Davidson and just the night-to-night competition of a consistently strong league. A tempo-free look at the conference follows, with efficiency margin being the offensive efficiency subtracted by the defensive. The numbers, for conference play only, courtesy of bbstate.com:

1) Davidson (14-4 record, 66 possessions, +13 efficiency margin)
2) Dayton (13-5, 64, +12)
3) Richmond (12-6, 64, +10)
4) VCU (12-6, 68, +7)
5) Rhode Island (13-5, 68, +6)
6) George Washington (10-8, 62, +3)
7) La Salle (8-10, 66, 0)
8) St. Bonaventure (10-8, 66, -1)
9) Saint Joseph's (7-11, 66, -5)
10) UMass (10-8, 68, -6)
11) Fordham (4-14, 68, -7)
12) George Mason (4-14, 65, -9)
13) Duquesne (6-12, 68, -12)
14) Saint Louis (3-15, 65, -15)

Offensive leaders:
1) Davidson (114 offensive efficiency)
2) Dayton (106)
T-3) George Washington (104)
T-3) Richmond (104)

Defensive leaders:
1) Rhode Island (89 defensive efficiency)
2) La Salle (93)
T-3) VCU (94)
T-3) Richmond (94)
T-3) Dayton (94)

At a coaching clinic, UConn women’s mentor Geno Auriemma criticized the axiom ‘offense sells tickets, defense wins ballgames.’ A defensive advocate in his own right, Auriemma feels you better have the offensive ability to put points on the board against the multiple defenses you may encounter. La Salle is an excellent example. The defensive efficiency was excellent, but the Explorers were an 8-­10 team. The offense netted just a 93 efficiency. La Salle shot a 46% eFG mark, one of the lowest in conference. Their 19% TO rate was also at the bottom half of A­-10 results. Those two areas go a long way toward explaining their subpar offensive showing.

Championship game, March 15, 2015 (Barclays Center) - VCU 71, Dayton 65
For some, this game was remembered by the last two minutes, which took about a half-hour of clock time. There were timeouts as a trailing Dayton was in a fouling mode, and the seconds seemed to melt away at a glacial pace.

Beyond that was a contest decided by pace and three-point shooting. VCU forced tempo with a 72-possession game, definitely more to the liking of the Rams. Normally a good three-point shooting team, Dayton was 2-of-12 (17%) from downtown. VCU, on the other hand, checked in at 37% with a 10-of-27 showing. Turnover rates saw VCU check in at 18%, while Dayton was 14%, both acceptable numbers with the showing of the Flyers significant in that Shaka Smart’s club excelled at forcing teams into turning the ball over.

Again, putting the ball in the basket is key. VCU, with their three-point showing, was 51.8% in eFG while the Flyers struggled at 40%, the difference in the outcome giving the Rams their first A-­10 championship.

We are not here to debate about the coaching change and Jeff Neubauer assuming the reins at Rose Hill. Regardless, a few numbers are in order to assess and illustrate the five seasons former coach Tom Pecora spent at Fordham:

2010-11: 1-15 conference record, -24 efficiency margin
2011-12: 3-13, -21 efficiency margin
2012-13: 3-13, -17 efficiency margin
2013-14: 2-14, -16 efficiency margin
2014-15: 4-14, -7 efficiency margin

Quite evidently, there was improvement. Not leaps and bounds by any stretch, but progress in what was, and still remains, a rebuilding effort of significant proportions. The efficiency margins during Pecora’s tenure gradually increased. Pecora’s last year saw the best move forward. The Rams won four conference games, and for the second straight year, they earned an opening-round tournament win at Barclays Center. The season ended at the hands of eventual A-­10 champion VCU, in a game that was much more competitive than anyone could have expected when conference play tipped off.

The conference pace saw everyone under the ‘NASCAR’ pace of seventy possessions per outing. There were transition teams, but not at a constant full throttle break. It was more a case of opportunity breaks. The competitive nature of the conference lent itself to more scenarios of controlled tempo.

The turnover margins can be read in two ways. With only three teams over the 20% mark, you could say the talent was there to care for the ball on offense. Pace again can be in the discussion. As noted previously, with teams not at an all-out tempo, the chances to eliminate costly turnovers are more prevalent. Davidson, with a 13.6% TO percentage, was the conference leader in that category. That mark goes a long way toward describing their outstanding offensive efficiency.

Wrapup - A sentence for all:
Davidson: Conference-leading 56% eFG mark.
Dayton: 17% TO rate complimented accurate shooting.
Richmond: One of the most deliberate paced, at 64 possessions per game.
VCU: Forced opponents into a conference-leading 22% TO rate.
Rhode Island: Solid all-around defense, allowing 45% eFG shooting and forced opponents into a 21% TO rate.
George Washington: Most deliberate pace, at 62 possessions per game.
La Salle: Consistency, as efficiency on defense at home was 92.
St. Bonaventure: Plus-4 efficiency margin in the confines of Reilly Center.
Saint Joseph's: Conference-low 15.2% free throw rate affected the offense.
UMass: Too generous with the threes, allowing a 36% percentage, second-lowest in the league.
Fordham: Fordham’s efficiency margin was plus-3 at home.
George Mason: Conference-leading 55% rebound percentage.
Duquesne: Offense fueled by 51% eFG shooting and 17% TO rate.
Saint Louis: A 21.2% TO rate, very uncharacteristic of recent Billiken teams.

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